As . Importantly, the countries of maritime Southeast Asia are not aligning only with the United States, but with a grouping of external states concerned with the nature of Chinas rise. The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. access to Thailands military facilities, particularly the strategically located and well-equipped Utapao airbase, is considered invaluable. the South China Sea that would be " - S " ["permitting a leaf to obscure one's view of the mountain"]. It is highly likely that China will continue to upset regional stability in the SCS to expand its own sphere of influence. Now, the two militaries will increasingly exercise and train across a broad spectrum of military operations, from the low end to the high. Even then, the countrys division between royalists and red-shirts will likely endure. From the report. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. In short, adopting a more robust deterrence approach need not prevent cooperation that is in the interests of both countries. Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. The post-war regional order. The isolationist China has never traditionally had a deep water navy, with a significant power projection capability; however the production of its first aircraft carrier (Liaoning) has been a noteworthy change from a soft power in the land environment to a hard power projection at sea stance. By the mid-1990s, relations with Vietnam had begun a rapidly improvement. The result has been to heighten tensions and allow Chinese forces to more easily project military power across the region. Chinas militarization and territorial expansion in the South China Sea is illegal and dangerous, Vice President Pence said at the East Asia Summit last year. This is the first of three short essays examining the South China Sea as a first order strategic problem for the United States. The strategic value of the alliance remains high, according to theCongressional Research Service: *** U.S. Most of China's global trade is seaborne. President Musharraf requested China to invest in this important strategic chokepoint in the Indian Ocean., to which China agreed. by Geoffrey Hartman In . In particular, shifting explanations for how the United States will manage Chinas rising power and influencealong with the military-heavy implementation of the rebalancehave exacerbated suspicions that Washington seeks to contain Beijings rise. 2023 Center for Strategic & International Studies. The new administration should issue clear and consistent strategic messages, since inconsistent articulation of the objectives of the rebalance strategy has caused confusion in China and amongst U.S. allies and partners. Inconsistent messaging and policiesincluding on freedom of navigation and routine presence operationshave also led to confusion in the region. . In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. China is already providing indications of how it might act when it controls the South China Sea. The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. Navy P-8s are now regularly deploying to Singapore and, although without regular access, they have conducted patrols from Malaysia as well. Select Accept to consent or Reject to decline non-essential cookies for this use. Many of these countries suffer from corruption and lack for effective rule of law. Besides, more than half of the world's fishing vessels pass through the SCS. The most important and least tangible stake in the South China Sea concerns the preservation (or not) of a regional rules-based order supported by U.S. power. As the new administration sets out to revamp U.S. strategy in the South China Sea, it should keep the following guidelines in mind: Although Chinese cooperation is necessary to address some regional and global issuessuch as North Koreas belligerent behavior and climate changethe United States should not be held hostage by concerns that a more robust deterrence strategy will thwart bilateral cooperation. But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. The South China Sea is basically China's export waterway to Africa and to Europe (among other markets), but in order for China's enemy (aspiring conqueror), America, to harm and weaken China maximally, and to use the United Nations assisting in that aggression, America and its allies have cast this vital trade-waterway as being instead basically just an area to be exploited for oil and gas . Russian long-range aviation, despite performing frequent combat missions against Ukraine, is also conducting Pacific patrols, sometimes together with Chinese H-6K strategic bombers (Nikkei Asia, November 30). Center for Strategic and International Studies These same sea-lanes are a vital military artery as the U.S. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the South China Sea dispute and to analyze why the dispute has yet to escalate, as well as the strategic importance of the South China Sea dispute to international trade. What is more important from a strategic viewpoint, however, is that global energy projections that the EIA issues in the International Energy Outlook, issued in October 2021, make it clear that China and Asia will have a sharply growing dependence on MENA and Gulf petroleum exports that may well extend through 2050. It is the geostrategic importance that is usually the main reason for the parties to strengthen their claim over the Spratlys and the Paracels. Australia, for its part, has vocally supported U.S. freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea and may have quietly conducted its own in recent months. China, too, considers control of these waters to be of high strategic importance. The South China Sea is one such essential waterway, made more important by the value of the sea's fisheries and subsea resources such as natural gas. China has constructed more than 3,000 acres of artificial islands, and although this is not illegal, it is an intimidating display of wealth and power. The lifting of the arms embargo also opens the door to other forms of U.S.-Vietnam security cooperation. Pexels India-China Indo-Pacific South China Sea Signalling is important international relations. The United States can do more to leverage its alliances in Asia to raise the costs of Chinese efforts to undermine the regional order. When it comes to trade, investment and infrastructure development, China should not be the only game in town. The global focus of economic power has traditionally been centred over the west with the UK and the USA as the key contributors; however in recent years, this has shifted east (see Figure 1), with the main reason for this being rapid urbanization in developing countries, in particular China. There are certainly other situations involving other challenges, but this is the most plausible and dangerous. The diplomatic tempest at the ARF came when U.S. security attention was preoccupied with ongoing military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the global counterterrorism campaign with Osama bin Laden still at large. Beijing has also been careful to avoid estranging Aung San Suu Kyi and adopted a largely pragmatic approach to the countrys transition away from authoritarian rule. Three years ago an arbitration tribunal issued a decision finding that Chinas maritime claims in the South China Sea are inconsistent with the Law of the Sea Convention. The Obama administrations decision to lift the decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam is instrumental here. 1982 More than 160 nations conclude the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, an international treaty setting out the framework governing the oceans and their uses. This new strategic map of Southeast Asia actually began to take shape during the Bush administration, whichinitially launchedthe effort to move beyond Americas traditional hub-and-spokes alliance model in the Asia-Pacific. While consistency in U.S. messaging and policy execution is important, it should be balanced by carefully calculated unpredictability in operations and tactics to prevent Beijing from becoming overly confident in its ability to anticipate U.S. reactions. Check out the linked article on the Belt and road initiative now. When Beijing froze banana imports from the Philippines in the midst of the Scarborough Shoal standoff in 2012, it sent a clear message to its Southeast Asian neighbors: economic ties would not be immune from diplomatic contretemps. The South China Sea contains some of the world's most important shipping lanes. through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. All these aspects highlight the strategic indispensability of the South China Sea for global trade routes. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. The neighboring South East Asian countries of the highly volatile and busiest waterways of the South China Sea (SCS) have overlapping claims of sovereignty. See Media Page for more interview, contact, and citation details. It has also been known to give its fishermen military training for years, but recently this has been reported as more assertive with fishermen helping to underwrite and enforce sovereignty claims by occupying territory at sea, carrying out surveillance and harassing other vessels under the guise of civilian fishing boats. More than half of the worlds fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. Instead, perceptions of weakness may encourage leaders in Beijing to embrace more assertive behavior. American littoral combat ships are rotating through Singapore, at the South China Seas western extremis, and the city-state has also quietly built the only Asian port outside of Yokohama at which an American aircraft carrier can dock. Other claimant states welcome U.S. involvement precisely because Washington does not favor one claimants territorial ambitions over those of the others. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. The risk to Chinese power projection lies predominantly with US interests. The region also is the subject of more than a dozen overlapping and interconnected disputes over who is in charge of the various islands, rocks, shoals and reefs scattered throughout the South China Sea waters. The strategically important South China Sea is an increasingly prominent stage for the spiraling tensions . That grouping came under Chinese control an event that went almost entirely unnoticed in the wider world as the drama marking the end of the Vietnam War played out. All Rights Reserved, Japans Emerging Role as the Worlds Consensus Builder, Balancing Acts in U.S. Southeast Asia Policy, Pakistans Foreign Policy Priorities: A Conversation with Foreign Minister by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Indias Economic Ambitions in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Paving the Path to Soft Power: Crucial Moments in South Koreas Cultural Policies, Afghanistan: The United States Must Stay Engaged. U.S. allies and partners in the region are drawing lessons from Chinese coercive behavior and the limited U.S. response to it, and some are beginning to doubt U.S. resolve and adjust their foreign policies in response. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). "American aircraft, this is the PLA air force. 2016 The Arbitration Tribunal rules in favor of the Philippines. The United States and the West more broadly can live with such an outcome. That line was given little credence or attention in the U.S. or in Asia over the first five decades of the PRCs history. Without the southern American presence, Chinese forces could more easily divide American forces east and west in the event of a crisis, more easily defend territorial claims or intimidate Malaysia and Indonesia, and more easily threaten maritime and air traffic crisscrossing the South China Sea. Any temptation to alter U.S. policies in the South China Sea to preserve cooperation with China in other areas is unnecessary and potentially counterproductive. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. This geo strategic significance is the main reason behind the fact that China and other territorial stakeholders are contesting to gain control of these maritime lane. Strategic Landscape of the South China Sea: While geopolitics indicates geographical relations with politics, there is another importance which is strategic. In addition, the United States has affirmed some responsibility for the defense of Taiwan and has close security ties with Singapore and New Zealand. But in order to achieve renewed stability in the regionto ensure that Southeast Asians are not susceptible to non-military Chinese coercionthe United States must strive to become more than just the security partner of choice. 1. In 1989 troops from the Peoples Liberation Army entered Tiananmen Square and terminated the student-led democracy demonstrations and hundreds died. South China Sea and possible options. The reaction of the Chinese Foreign Minister was incendiary and revealing. A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. Such pressure should focus on concrete, near-term objectives, such as putting a stop to reeducation of regime critics. This has continued in to the present day. China perceives Vietnam as an obstacle for acquiring its control over this strategic sea. Sun Tzu Explains China's Shaping Operations in the South China Sea. More and more, we see a particularly aggressive maritime stance from China towards NATO warships when exercising freedom of navigation through the SCS. Does US-hegemonic decline translate into a fight between democracy and autocracy in maintaining a benign world order? director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative at Peking . Its strategic economic importance and its geographic location at the confluence of several spheres of influence have rendered it one of the "world's hotspots". Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. As a result of this shift, China now seeks to control sea lines of communication, ensure national prosperity and continue economic growth and national greatness; the South China Sea plays a massive part in this. Persistent American military presence at the eastern, southern and western points of the compassespecially when combined with regional states advancing ISR capabilities, for which the United States is providing investmentwould enable the United States to respond rapidly to incidents in disputed island chains or to Chinese attacks on U.S. and allied naval and air assets or on commercial shipping. The United States will continue to stand with our allies and partners to uphold the order that we helped build, Pencesaid. The United States and its Pacific allies should consider whether it is feasible and sensible to coordinate the activities of USAID, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), and Australias Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The Chinese recently built an island in the South China Sea, apparently as a potential airbase. In addition, tensions have been raised with the Philippines after assertive Chinese naval patrols which they described as aggressive action. In particular, Thailand has a much more benign outlook on Chinas rise and on its activities in the South China Sea, and although suggestions that Bangkok would dump Washington for Beijing are certainly overstated, Thai elites are hesitant to be drawn into what they see as a U.S. effort to contain the kingdoms largest trade partner. In other words, his primary concern is that the rivalry over the South China Sea could derail Beijing's strong strategic focus on the Taiwan issue.25 Academic perspectives on the South China Sea are important and may actually be quite influential. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the South China Sea. Thailand, of course, has been an important security partner for the United States. What is the Strategic Importance of the South China Sea? The South China Sea is one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. China has harassed U.S. Navy ships operating in the South China Sea, warned military flights to stay away from its artificial islands, and recently seized a U.S. drone operating in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. Shortly after the ARF concluded, an official spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry asserted Chinas indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea. If Chinese coercion goes unchallenged by the United States, it will send a dangerous signal about the strength of the U.S. alliance system and lessen the appeal of the United States as a security partner. Historically, Taiwan's pivotal location off the China coast and between Northeast and Southeast Asia has served a variety of strategic purposes for regional powers, both offensive and defensive. At the economic front, it is estimated that an annual global trade of $5.3 trillion passes through the SCS. With a new Southeast Asian strategic alignment taking shape as described, geography makes Indonesia and Malaysiaespecially due to its Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneothe regions key swing states. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has undertaken more assertive policies that have greatly improved Beijings position in the South China Sea. Generally, oil and minerals move north, and food and manufactured goods move south. The main route to and from Pacific and Indian ocean ports is through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. It has increased its military budget by over 8.5% in recent years and this is likely to continue for the near future. The strategic importance of the South China Sea is mainly due to its geographical location as the area is one of world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. Final Thoughts & Looking Towards the Future. Beijing may not find it quite as easy to run roughshod over Hanoi in the coming years. All this will occur in a region that is increasingly the vibrant center of the world economy. Thus, it is said that the South China Sea could be the battleground of World War III. However, Brunei's insistence that specific issues in the maritime region should be . The United States also faces a challenge in enforcing international law in the South China Sea. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Thailand has little reason to jettison the alliance, but in the near term the United States may need to accept more distant ties and a closer Thai-Chinese relationship. The refusal, likely prompted by Beijing, might seem to be just another way for China to put pressure on Taiwan, which it has long regarded as a renegade province. Since 2009, China has growingly asserted its influence over the SCS by enforcing an annual fishing ban, conducting regular maritime patrols, undertaking scientific surveys and conducting military exercises in the disputed islands and waters. South China Sea or even some part of its strategically significant zones will provide the sovereign nation state significant seat in global trade agreements. India has likewise pursued deeper defense ties with Vietnam, and Indian warships just made port calls at Cam Ranh Bay and Subic Bay while en route to trilateral naval exercises with the United States and Japan in the Western Pacific. Chinese missiles on the mainland already hold all U.S. Asian bases at risk. Certainly, the ongoing reform process and the opening of relations with the United States amount to a strategic setback for Chinas position in the region. It is growing more difficult to discuss Southeast Asia without discussing Japan, India and Australia, whose ties to the region and to each other are maturing and whose militarieswhether represented by personnel, aircraft, or warshipsare increasingly present in the region. China has seized the initiative in the South China Sea, however, and the United States needs to revamp its strategy to reverse current trends and escape the trap of reactive and ineffectual policymaking. Then again, China may see its efforts in the South China Sea blunted. According to the U.S. State Department, it has been estimated that China is effectively blocking the development of $2.5 trillion worth of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. As one of the busiest trade routes in the world and home to a wealth of marine and mineral resources, the South China Sea holds great economic and geostrategic importance. The United States needs to consider a wider variety of non-military responses to Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, and more effectively build a local coalition to support these responses. Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. More than half of the world's fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. The South China Sea (SCS) has great strategic and economic significance in the contemporary international politico-security environment. China is undertaking a persistent, long-term effort to establish control over the South China Sea. Nevertheless, for America, this new world will be profoundly discomfiting and even alien. NEW DELHI (The Straits Times/Asia News Network): Singapore's Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan urged China and the US to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South . The longstanding U.S. position that it takes no position on sovereignty disputes over land features in the South China Sea, while insisting that these disputes be resolved in a peaceful fashion and in accordance with international law, is sound and should be maintained. There were, however, cautionary signs for those prepared to see them. Figure 4 shows the overlapping sovereignty claims in the SCS, with Chinas claims according to the 9 dash line doctrine in red. The growing size and capability of the Chinese air force, navy, and coast guard allow Beijing to consistently monitor and exercise de facto control over most of the South China Sea. Therefore, the US plays a key role in influencing the resolution of the SCS disputes. 5 min. From busiest . Whomever is elected to be the next American president, that person would be wise to have in place a Plan B should the TPP fail to pass the Senate this year (such a Plan B is admittedly unlikely, given that both major candidates would bear responsibility for its failure in the first place). That claim remained shrouded in a calculated fog of ambiguity until 2010 when Secretary of State Clinton addressed the status of the South China Sea and its sea-lanes at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi. Allied efforts to support U.S. force posture in the region will remain vital, but the United States should also expect allies to make greater contributions in responding to Chinese coercion. WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc said the disputed South China Sea has a strategic significance for the international community and any "unlawful" restriction on the freedom of the seas will destabilise peace in the Asia-Pacific region.